It's something you see every day and you say to yourself that "this is not possible".
Things keep happening that you considered impossible to happen.
Who would have thought that we would end up arrested in our own homes during the Pandemic?
Who would have thought that it would be possible to exercise the tyranny of vaccination over us?
Who would have thought that the right to opinion would be so brutally prohibited as it is now in Western societies?
For an opinion written on a social network, in England and in European countries you go to prison.
If I were to list the aberrations in today's society, I would probably easily fill at least one edition of Encyclopædia Britannica.
Imagine that in an European country some elections were absolutely arbitrarily canceled.
And, absolutely surprisingly, there are some who take the moron in chief of the system seriously when he says that he will publish the report on the cancellation of the elections?
Well, he's a natural idiot, the others are morons "by design".
The problem we need to understand is that all these "undoable" matters are happening in a society built on the conceptions of freedom radicals, such as Rousseau.
In the Western world, where "freedoms and rights" are considered sacred, their violation has become routine, a banality.
Something that worsens from one day to the next. What are we to understand?
In fact, it is a logical matter, known and theorized since ancient times.
In China it was called the "Mandate of Heaven" or the dynastic cycle, part of the official philosophy of the state.
Somewhat later, more precisely in the 14th century, the Arab thinker Ibn Khaldun introduces the notion of Asabiyyah, which would now be translated as social solidarity; social cohesion.
A state resists exactly as long as this Asabiyyah resists.
Peripheral groups - made up of simple people, tribes, revolutionaries - have enormous solidarity because they have gone through hardships together.
Thus they manage to conquer the cities and define the new state.
However, once installed in power, in a maximum of 3-4 generations (approximately 120 years), the luxurious urban life and money destroy their solidarity.
The children of the leaders no longer know what effort means, they become selfish, the state weakens, and another group with a fresher and stronger Asabiyyah sweeps them off the stage of history.
The theory of the state/civilizational cycle has not remained a notion lost in history, but has been distilled in the modern era through people like Arnold Toynbee or Peter Turchin.
As an idea, a complete cycle has four phases:
Phase 1: Definition or Genesis (Initial Solidarity)
A new system appears, usually on the ruins of an old one or following chaos (war, revolution, invasion).
A new elite, disciplined and united around a strong idea (religion, ideology, national identity), lays the foundations of the state.
The characteristics of this period are as clear as can be: simple and strict laws, efficient institutions, and minimal corruption.
There is tremendous social cohesion – people are willing to make sacrifices for the collective.
Phase 2: Growth and Expansion (Golden Age)
The state consolidates its institutions, military, and economy.
It begins to accumulate wealth, build infrastructure, and expand its geographical or cultural influence.
Now the main characteristic is the emergence of complex bureaucracies that efficiently manage resources.
The population grows, the standard of living rises, and the arts and sciences flourish.
It is the peak moment.
Phase 3: Stagnation and Elite Overproduction (Bureaucratization)
Wealth brings comfort, and comfort brings stagnation.
The social cohesion from the beginning begins to crack.
What historian Peter Turchin calls “the overproduction of elites” appears: too many rich and influential people fighting for the same positions of power, while the base of society (the common people) begins to impoverish due to taxes or inflation.
The main characteristic of this phase is individualism replacing the spirit of sacrifice.
Phase 4: Decadence and Collapse (Terminal Phase)
The state becomes financially insolvent, and corruption becomes systemic.
Citizens’ trust in institutions drops to zero, losing legitimacy.
The system becomes extremely fragile to external (economic crises, invasions) or internal (civil war) shocks.
The characteristic of the period is violent collapse, fragmentation.
The system can no longer be reformed from within because its “pieces” refuse to lose their privileges.
Does this sound familiar?
Take a look at the local and international situation to understand as simply and precisely as possible the phase we are in.
The entire West is made up of financially bankrupt states, and corruption is so great that it has become legal.
There is maximum social polarization everywhere, in which the real barons, the 1%, own over 99% of the nation's wealth.
Reform?
No way!
Look at Trump: he came out of the election campaign with a program bringer of hope and ended it by subsidizing the military-industrial complex so that it wouldn't be eaten alive by them.
To make the story even more interesting, I will tell you that there is even a pattern to the current phase.
The way in which state institutions collapse is one that has been repeated constantly over time.
There are three phases here too:
Phase 1: Collapse of the immune system
First, the institutions of control and integrity fail.
Candidate number 1 is the Judiciary where, through appointments or infiltrations (see the case of judges and prosecutors on the secret services' cover lists), preferential application of the law is achieved.
The same category includes economic regulatory institutions.
However, the component that is most brutally hit is the independent press.
This is either bought or censored.
Everything is happening against the backdrop of a very banal scheme: the gross increase in incompetence.
Phase 2: Bankruptcy or collapse of public service institutions and infrastructure
The consequences of the first phase begin to spread throughout society.
Generalized corruption and incompetence increase the prices of various services in relation to the state and thus the institutions that provide services to the population enter into operational collapse.
Education and Health enter into blockages, the quality leaves much to be desired.
Critical infrastructure deteriorates as a result of lack of maintenance.
And, although the "state offer" is increasingly poor in quality, taxes and duties increase, etc.
Phase 3: The besieged fortress
When public services have collapsed and the population is revolted, the state completely loses its legitimacy.
The only way the system can survive is through brute force.
Therefore, the institutions of force are the last to be financed and the most fiercely defended by the elites.
The Fiscal Apparatus becomes extremely aggressive, trying to squeeze the last resources from the population and businesses to keep the state afloat.
The Intelligence Services and the Political Police/Gendarmerie change their role from protecting national security to protecting the elites from their own people.
They receive large budgets, riot control equipment and legal immunity.
In this context, the army becomes the last line of defense of the system.
It sounds familiar;
If what I am saying seems new, imagine that it has happened so many times that it has become theorized.
And, what is surprising is that, despite the fact that everything is documented, the same errors are made every time.
You often wonder why?
OK, as a simple person it is excusable.
You have no way of taking this matter into account.
It is information that interests you tangentially, so if you have no idea, it is not serious.
But as a planner of society, as a service of the system, not having any idea what waters you are bathing in seems inexcusable.
But the story is different.
Even if you know, there's nothing you can do!
Fatality?
I wouldn't say so.
The reason is much simpler: you undoubtedly end up in the area where reform is impossible.
That's the situation we find ourselves in.
Look around the world: Trump, Macron, Starmer, Merz, Ursula or Nicușor Dan.
All parrots.
And ours surpasses them because, beyond stupidity, it also has a degree of dilema that is downright unsustainable and, at the same time, particularly comical for the masses.
When you see how much stupidity is crammed into levels 1 and 2 of the West, you wonder how it works. Can you imagine a notorious fool like Kaja Kallas making EU foreign policy?
How does the world still work?
The answer is simple: due to inertia.
And it doesn't work, but rolls by inertia mimicking a former state of things that have being destroyed by the powers to be already long time ago; either until it explodes or it drowns into the pit of self dismanteling.
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